This was written in 2004:

The crash of the housing market will not be pretty. It is virtually certain to lead to a second dip to the recession. Even worse, millions of families will see the bulk of their savings disappear as homes in some of the bubble areas lose 30 percent, or more, of their value. Foreclosures, which are already at near record highs, will almost certainly soar to new peaks. This has happened before in regional markets that had severe housing bubbles, most notably in Colorado and Texas after the collapse of oil prices in the early eighties. However, this time the bubble markets are more the rule than the exception, infecting most of real estate markets on both coasts, as well as many local markets in the center of the country.

In this context, it’s especially disturbing that the Bush administration has announced that it is cutting back Section 8 housing vouchers, which provide rental assistance to low income families, while easing restrictions on mortgage loans. Low-income families will now be able to get subsidized mortgage loans through the Federal Housing Administration that are equal to 103 percent of the purchase price of a home. Home ownership can sometimes be a ticket to the middle class, but buying homes at bubble-inflated prices may saddle hundreds of thousands of poor families with an unmanageable debt burden.

As with the stock bubble, the big question in the housing bubble is when it will burst. No one can give a definitive answer to that one, but Alan Greenspan seems determined to ensure that it will be after November. Instead of warning prospective homebuyers of the risk of buying housing in a bubble-inflated market, Greenspan gave Congressional testimony in the summer of 2002 arguing that there is no such bubble.

The author has since written a free ebook that can be found here:

And now, another writer who was one of the first on the scene to have nearly telepathic fortune-telling insight:

All of this coming after an election that had more Democratic veterans running and winning elected office than ever before, as we reassert our FDR-Truman-Kennedy national security legacy. But Mr. Obama hints that he will employ his “capacity to get people to recognize themselves in each other” in his potential presidency. Fine. Groovy. Let’s all join hands. But is it too much to ask that we do it while also asserting, even stressing that the Democratic Party has the policy answers that those other people should get used to? Because when we take the White House back and have a majority in both houses of Congress we’re going to put into action Democratic Party principles and the policies that follow, because our principles and policies are way better than what those other guys have to offer.

But not once in the Stephanopoulos let’s-all-get-along interview did I get the feeling that Barack Obama wants to be president to install the beliefs of the Democratic Party, or that we even had the ideas that will take this country where we need to go after the most disastrous presidency in modern times. Or that Obama wants to take advantage of the Republican collapse to drive a stake through conservatism’s very heart. Instead I got the distinct “capacity to get people to recognize themselves in each other” impression. I don’t want any Democratic leader, especially a Democratic president, seeing conservatism in themselves.

Again, I’m all for getting along to get things done. However, when Democrats are in charge the Republicans need to know it. Otherwise, why get elected in the first place? With George Will actually saying that there’s something Reaganesque about Obama’s sunny disposition and lack of vitriol, excuse me, but can anyone argue this wouldn’t be a gift to conservatives? Or maybe the torch is going to be passed to a different kind of politician ushering in a new kind of politics to America. Someone that brings consensus and kumbaya to the White House so Democrats and Republicans can join hands and finally walk side by side, with deals made so everyone is happy. If that’s the case there will be one outcome. The Republican Party will get up off the mat, dust themselves off and then the conservatives will stab us in the back with a smile on their faces, and this once in a generation opportunity to finish off the wingnuts so they’ll truly have to start a twenty year rebuilding process will pass us by. If Obama is president when it happens it’s likely he won’t know what hit him until it’s too late for us all.

Tell me how a Candidate Kumbaya would be good for Democrats, because right now I’m just not seeing it at all.